Doomsday scenarios from the standpoint of food (Part One)

I'm finishing reading the book by Paul Roberts' The End of Food "(Incidentally he is also the author of After the Oil, recommended books both) and I arrivedat the intriguing scenario that, well, the scenarios on resources food are disturbing to say the least. Here's what Paul says:

Given the strength of the reluctance to change the food system and the manypolitical, economic and cultural alignment in favor of the status quo it is nosurprise that real change can only come from outside the system in the form of crisis or shock oblige him to evolve. (Disaster unexpected and potentially catastrophic)

[...]

Imagine, for example, then it explodes quell'epidemia of avian influenza that most experts believe inveitabile [...] credible scenarios such as thosedesigned by the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney:

• In less developed countries [...] about 3 million people die 
• China and India would lose more than 5 million people [...] 
• 200,000 deaths in the U.S. 

estimated an outbreak like this would cost U $ 2,200 to each family.

[...]

Sure a few cautiously optimistic argued that the probability that there will bean epidemic of this kind are relatively small [...] But these arguments ignorethe fact that bird flu is one of the many bombs that could, conceivably, hit themodern system food. A spike in oil prices, a series of extreme weather events [...] depletion of any of the key aquifers, even one of these conditionswould produce a shock wave of very great extent.

(more. ..)